Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Drives Villa's Surprising Push for Glory

It was eight weeks in the past when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.